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Mashi's Wolf Hunting Guide

Page history last edited by Mashi 8 years, 11 months ago

 

How to Catch Wolves
There is a myriad of strategies that can be utilised to find Wolves in TWG. Each Player has a unique way of finding them, such as Sauce’s focus on contributions and suspicion lists, Fiver’s analysis of past and present behaviours, Nighthawk’s scrutiny of actions, Mashi’s focus on people who look Human, Dark’s usage of his super amazingness to find Wolves before the Roles are even distributed, and many more. Naturally, since there exists such a wide array of strategies, this Guide won’t be able to cover all of them. What I hope it will accomplish is to give fundamental steps needed to develop one’s own unique strategy for finding Wolves.

                                                                           

The Reverse Psychology Dilemma
Before I begin discussing strategies, I want to quickly discuss this problem. Chances are that if you’re reading this Guide, you’ve already played a few TWGs and have some sort of general idea of what suspicious activity is. However, what does one do in a situation where an action is ambiguous? If Player A, a skilled TWGer, forgets how many Wolves there are or any other frivolous mistake, should one become suspicious? On one hand, Player A may be a Human who legitimately forgot the number of Wolves. On the other, Player A may be a Wolf trying to mislead Humans with that logic! This type of reverse psychology logic is ambiguous and, generally, irrelevant. A veteran Wolf, I don’t complicate my actions by thinking of duping the Humans with reverse psychology arguments, and I imagine the same goes for other experienced Wolves. Wolves won’t actively make their actions ambiguous, they’re going to make their actions seem Human. If they slip up, chances are that it won’t be ambiguous. If one finds himself/herself in the situation where he/she is ruminating over whether something relates to reverse psychology, it’s generally a better idea to either trust whatever’s first instincts are or to eliminate the details as evidence in the first place.

 

 

Suspicious Behaviours
Now, on to what you’re really interested in this Guide! I’ll do my best to outline suspicious behaviours, but please note that this is not a definitive list.

Actions Against the Human Team – The most obvious (so much so that I couldn't think of a good name!). If a Player seems to be actively or indirectly trying to hurt the Human Team, chances are that person isn’t on the Human Team. This type of behaviour may propagate near the end game when Wolves become a bit complaisant and maybe are on the verge of victory. Examples of this include leading or supporting bad lynchings, poor suggestions for actions the Human Team should make, misusing a power or Item, and other similar situations. Most experienced Wolves tend not to fault in this manner nowadays, however. I feel that if this type of suspicion forms, it would be most likely because a Wolf is leading a poor lynch near the end game. I will address more of that issue in a section about group polarisation and consensus.

Wolfings – As time goes on, wolfings tend to be a good indicator of who may be on the Wolf Team. It’s important to realise, however, that forming suspicions based on wolfings is not a surefire strategy and is prone to inaccuracies (eg. There are generally three Wolves to make a wolfing, and in occasional cases, different Wolves may have made different wolfings throughout the game). In consequence, it’s better to base wolfings as supplements to one’s suspicions.
Players on LLF tend to make relatively unique wolfings when compared to Players on other forums. For the most part, the Manti Rule is not followed (in fact, mid-tier Players are often wolfed first) and LLFers try to keep their friends alive to make the game more fun. Players such as Nighthawk and Mashi tend to obey an etiquette of whom to wolf as Wolves (eg. not wolfing Players wolfed early in the previous game, new Players, or friends near the beginning of the game unless something major occurs) and thus, may become less suspicious if someone they wouldn’t normally wolfed is wolfed. A majority of Players try making wolfings untraceable by wolfing someone anyone would wolf. However, every wolfing supplies at least a shred of evidence towards the Wolf Team. It may not be much sometimes, but for what it’s worth, wolfings are something to at least be taken into consideration.

Player Analysis – Certain Players tend to act differently depending on their Roles. As mentioned in the Wolfings section, Players such as Nighthawk and Mashi tend to act differently than most other Players would as Wolves in that the two would not make certain wolfings that many others would. But a Player’s behaviour can extend beyond simple wolfings, however. Some Players tend to stay quiet as Wolves while others may tend towards the spotlight. Some Players may be more accusatory as Humans than as Wolves or vice versa. The manner in which a Player acts as a Role tends to be consistent with that of recent past games, so it’s highly recommended to read past games to understand how a Players plays as a particular Role.
This is the type of speculation that will require a bit of subjectivity and independence. Skilled Players tend to act similarly despite their Roles, but foibles will always be there. It’s your job as a TWGer to find those out for yourselves though!

Lying and Slip Ups – A Wolf is much more likely to lie than a Human is. Wolves naturally have to be mendacious prevaricators; otherwise they would be lynched and lose the game! Chatting with Players and being active while also being cognizant of what is going on will significantly improve your game. The small details are what matter, because those are what the Wolves often don’t notice. As an example, in TWG 68, Nighthawk, a skilled Wolf, wolfed BammerSteel, a candidate for Traitor. Sauce, an adept Human, was able to use that wolfing to determine that Mashi was the actual Traitor, that the list he posted Day 1 was faked, and that Nighthawk was likely a Wolf; all based on a single wolfing and some suspicious remarks Nighthawk made in a chat they had! Be attentive and do your best to connect the dots!


Forming Suspicions

Suspicion Lists – Probably the best way to organise suspicions, catch Wolves, and find traction for lynches, seerings, vigis, and other similar mechanics. It’s also one of Sauce’s favourite methods of inspiring activity and searching for Wolves! Posting suspicion lists give Players something to talk about while simultaneously helping them determine who they should interrogate, analyse, and discuss the game with. Because Wolves must deliberate where to place other Wolves on the list, Humans may analyse other Players’ lists and accuse them of placing a Player high for so and so reason or low for another. This analysis goes a bit hand in hand with Player Analysis, so be sure to take into account what type of Player you’re dealing with while making analyses of other Players’ lists!

Kindred Players – Successful Wolf Teams tend to work together. Disorganised Wolves also win games from time to time, but such cases are rare. In consequence, one way to find Wolves is to determine which Players are compatible as Partners. This method is especially useful in games with Seers, cardflips, or similar Wolf reveals because it gives Humans a basis for finding Wolves based on how people acted or felt about that Player. From my experience, Wolves tend to either suspect or not suspect their Partners reasonably strongly (usually one Wolf is suspected and the other is deemed Human) instead of Wolves being found to be in the middle ground.

Interrogations – A great way to form suspicions is to interrogate other Players! This doesn’t strictly need to apply only to people you suspect, but asking questions back and forth to each other will at least create some conversation, which can then be scrutinised later to find potential suspects for Wolves!

Chatting – One of the most effective ways to begin suspecting Player is to chat with them. In topics, it’s easy for a Wolf to formulate a response, prevaricate an excuse, contrive some suspicions, and generally do things that appear Human. In a chatroom, however, it becomes much more difficult to edit responses to avoid suspicions, due to its fast paced nature. Chatrooms aren’t restricted to #LLFTWG, however; YIM, Skype, MSN, and other similar services are excellent tools to utilise to contact Players.


Concluding Remarks
So I hope this guide helped a bit in regard to strategies that can be used to find Wolves!
It’s important to note, however, that at the end of the day, the best way to find Wolves is to formulate your own strategies! Everyone has a unique way of doing so, as mentioned at the beginning of the guide. Make your strategy include ways that’ll be fun and make TWG a fulfilling experience! Good luck!

Comments (1)

Kaivêran said

at 10:43 pm on Feb 8, 2019

I feel like this bit of advice I've been kicking around fits best here, not sure exactly where:

*Make your reads fit the evidence, not the other way around.*
It's very tempting, especially as the designated "good guys" in the game, to build complex narratives full of intrigue and drama behind the events of the game, and to subsume every bit of you find into that narrative that makes you an underdog, wolf-hunting hero (while ignoring anything else). But the RNG that assigned roles doesn't care what you find exciting, dramatic, or heroic. The result of a TWG hinges on how good the humans are at writing NONfiction. So start from the objective things – posts, conversations, votecounts, wolfings – form an opinion on those and build from there. Remain open to counter-evidence. Don't get sucked into the vortex of arcane, super-complex explanations, conspiracy theories, or astronomically unlikely "what-ifs" – Occam's Razor is your friend.

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